Quantifying long-term scientific impact.

Wang, Dashun; Song, Chaoming; Barabási, Albert-László
The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.
Research areas:
Year:
2013
Type of Publication:
Article
Keywords:
Journal Impact Factor; Models; Theoretical
Journal:
Science (New York, N.Y.)
Volume:
342
Number:
6154
Pages:
127-32
Month:
October
ISSN:
1095-9203
DOI:
10.1126/science.1237825
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